* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/05/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 133 133 131 126 116 105 99 92 81 74 67 63 58 53 50 51 V (KT) LAND 130 133 133 131 126 116 105 99 92 81 74 67 63 58 53 50 51 V (KT) LGEM 130 133 131 127 124 115 108 99 83 67 54 46 42 39 36 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 9 6 3 3 9 13 19 27 34 26 21 23 30 33 33 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 -4 -3 -1 2 7 10 1 0 4 4 5 2 1 -8 SHEAR DIR 46 50 49 11 316 236 242 229 223 223 235 263 277 274 267 255 222 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.2 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 153 152 149 148 148 149 148 145 137 134 131 130 131 129 125 122 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.3 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -49.8 -50.1 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.4 -49.9 -50.2 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.5 1.8 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 57 60 62 60 61 62 61 59 56 49 41 39 39 40 42 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 30 30 31 29 33 34 36 35 31 27 24 21 18 15 13 16 850 MB ENV VOR 137 144 142 150 155 162 167 156 121 110 78 52 35 26 27 22 41 200 MB DIV 0 4 7 42 55 30 45 25 16 1 -4 -2 0 -15 8 37 46 700-850 TADV 1 1 2 1 3 4 4 12 26 34 17 9 4 -7 7 11 10 LAND (KM) 854 885 920 945 946 899 791 618 356 254 402 595 764 932 1104 1263 1398 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.5 13.7 13.8 14.5 15.7 17.3 19.9 22.5 24.8 26.5 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.1 161.7 162.3 162.8 163.3 163.9 164.1 163.7 163.0 162.6 162.6 163.3 164.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 5 5 5 7 11 13 13 10 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 34 38 35 32 32 37 40 30 20 13 9 5 5 6 2 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -23. -31. -39. -47. -54. -61. -66. -69. -73. -77. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 9. 9. 3. -2. -7. -9. -12. -13. -14. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 1. -4. -14. -25. -31. -38. -49. -56. -63. -67. -72. -77. -80. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.2 161.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 21.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 644.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 21.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.27 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.0% 3.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.0% 1.4% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 37 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##