* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/05/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 140 140 138 135 131 118 108 100 90 84 79 74 69 64 61 65 65 V (KT) LAND 140 140 138 135 131 118 108 100 90 84 79 74 69 64 61 65 65 V (KT) LGEM 140 139 135 131 127 119 111 97 80 65 55 50 47 43 42 46 50 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 6 4 9 12 16 23 28 27 15 12 14 18 17 16 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -3 -2 0 5 8 11 -1 5 8 11 6 8 -5 7 SHEAR DIR 52 63 58 99 161 214 224 218 212 231 239 259 271 291 252 237 285 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.3 27.4 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.1 26.4 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 153 151 150 148 148 149 149 148 139 134 134 131 130 129 123 126 120 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.1 -50.1 -50.4 -50.1 -50.2 -49.6 -49.8 -49.3 -49.1 -49.1 -49.3 -49.4 -49.8 -50.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.7 1.8 1.2 1.3 1.5 0.9 1.2 0.2 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 7 7 5 6 5 3 700-500 MB RH 59 63 63 63 63 60 62 60 55 47 42 39 38 37 36 35 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 32 33 33 35 35 36 37 34 32 30 27 24 20 17 22 24 850 MB ENV VOR 152 149 153 154 164 176 177 145 123 110 72 49 31 26 23 55 81 200 MB DIV 3 10 40 62 45 38 68 32 37 2 8 8 -2 1 15 55 -23 700-850 TADV 1 2 2 3 3 4 5 15 31 23 15 5 3 -1 7 2 6 LAND (KM) 889 924 960 949 933 854 732 502 274 275 455 651 826 979 1132 1266 1383 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.4 13.4 13.7 14.0 15.0 16.2 18.4 20.9 23.2 25.2 26.8 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 161.7 162.2 162.7 163.1 163.5 164.0 163.9 163.4 162.7 162.5 162.9 163.8 165.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 9 12 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 39 35 34 32 33 39 39 30 11 10 10 5 4 3 0 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -7. -11. -19. -29. -39. -48. -58. -66. -73. -78. -82. -85. -90. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 7. 4. 0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -9. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -5. -9. -22. -32. -40. -50. -56. -61. -66. -71. -76. -79. -75. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 140. LAT, LON: 13.3 161.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.73 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 661.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.16 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 140.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.1% 1.1% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.7% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 12 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##