* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/05/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 128 125 122 118 108 98 91 84 79 74 70 67 64 63 65 63 V (KT) LAND 130 128 125 122 118 108 98 91 84 79 74 70 67 64 63 65 63 V (KT) LGEM 130 127 124 121 117 110 99 86 69 56 48 44 42 41 43 46 45 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 4 3 6 9 14 19 25 31 24 20 21 28 29 28 35 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 -2 -1 1 9 11 6 1 4 5 9 0 13 0 2 SHEAR DIR 45 24 193 195 202 224 218 213 214 225 250 267 265 249 224 195 185 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 147 148 149 143 138 134 131 131 128 126 126 124 121 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.6 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.5 -49.0 -49.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.9 1.2 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.2 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 60 60 60 61 60 60 59 57 49 42 40 41 45 44 41 44 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 31 32 33 35 34 33 32 29 27 24 21 19 19 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 148 152 156 165 161 171 158 129 110 89 61 45 53 71 70 100 92 200 MB DIV -10 15 42 45 66 79 61 36 13 -3 9 1 12 8 68 32 4 700-850 TADV 2 2 3 4 4 5 10 19 34 14 9 3 -1 6 12 33 36 LAND (KM) 936 948 939 918 898 792 628 405 261 399 607 794 975 1089 1176 1359 1621 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.8 17.4 19.8 22.4 24.6 26.3 27.6 28.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.4 162.9 163.4 163.8 164.1 164.3 164.0 163.5 162.7 162.8 163.8 165.0 166.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 5 7 10 13 12 10 9 8 7 5 6 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 33 33 33 38 38 41 31 19 13 10 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -33. -42. -51. -59. -66. -71. -75. -79. -82. -84. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -9. -9. -7. -4. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 3. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -11. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -8. -12. -22. -32. -39. -46. -51. -56. -60. -63. -66. -67. -65. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 13.4 162.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 19.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 643.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.03 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 40.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.37 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.65 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 5 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##