* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 119 116 114 111 103 97 91 83 77 71 68 66 63 63 60 52 V (KT) LAND 125 119 116 114 111 103 97 91 83 77 71 68 66 63 63 60 52 V (KT) LGEM 125 119 115 112 109 102 92 79 63 50 42 39 38 38 41 42 36 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 1 4 8 9 11 26 31 33 27 24 28 31 41 42 37 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 -1 0 5 6 13 4 6 4 5 5 4 1 6 0 SHEAR DIR 41 235 199 188 211 227 230 213 222 234 251 267 250 229 231 208 183 SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.3 27.4 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.8 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.4 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 149 148 148 149 148 139 134 132 130 131 126 125 124 116 117 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.0 -49.9 -50.3 -50.4 -50.2 -50.1 -49.6 -49.9 -49.6 -49.4 -48.8 -49.3 -49.6 -50.4 -50.6 -51.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.0 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.3 0.5 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 61 62 62 62 60 59 59 53 46 42 44 46 46 46 49 51 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 33 35 35 35 38 36 32 29 26 23 21 19 21 21 16 850 MB ENV VOR 155 162 172 169 176 186 148 118 116 74 52 50 54 99 146 148 130 200 MB DIV 36 47 40 76 79 107 22 0 -2 -8 25 4 26 72 76 48 -11 700-850 TADV 1 3 4 4 2 4 10 23 28 10 6 0 -2 8 28 44 25 LAND (KM) 975 960 950 906 864 743 517 283 300 492 677 841 1014 1176 1315 1475 1670 LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.5 15.0 16.2 18.3 20.9 23.7 25.8 27.2 28.0 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.9 163.4 163.9 164.0 164.2 164.1 163.5 162.8 162.4 162.6 163.6 165.2 167.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 6 9 12 14 12 9 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 34 33 34 39 35 39 30 10 9 9 5 4 0 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 140 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -12. -21. -30. -39. -48. -56. -63. -68. -72. -75. -79. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. -3. -6. -6. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 4. -1. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -11. -10. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -11. -14. -22. -28. -34. -42. -48. -54. -57. -59. -62. -62. -65. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.4 162.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 625.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.09 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/05/26 18 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##