* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/06/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 110 108 105 103 94 87 81 74 70 67 65 63 62 60 56 52 V (KT) LAND 115 110 108 105 103 94 87 81 74 70 67 65 63 62 60 56 52 V (KT) LGEM 115 110 107 105 102 95 83 67 52 44 39 37 36 36 36 34 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 5 8 10 12 21 27 31 30 21 22 25 27 34 21 11 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 0 1 7 9 12 2 6 4 9 7 9 -4 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 106 150 195 222 235 225 209 207 222 239 264 271 249 239 245 245 18 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.2 26.8 26.8 26.8 27.2 26.3 26.6 26.6 25.9 25.6 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 149 148 148 149 148 137 132 131 131 135 125 128 128 122 120 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.9 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -50.2 -49.6 -49.9 -49.6 -49.5 -48.9 -49.1 -49.6 -50.2 -50.7 -51.5 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 3 700-500 MB RH 60 60 61 58 59 60 58 49 47 43 42 42 46 44 48 48 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 35 36 36 36 34 29 27 25 22 20 20 19 15 12 850 MB ENV VOR 159 165 169 171 178 161 135 121 92 63 46 53 70 68 60 45 41 200 MB DIV 41 39 57 57 88 44 31 0 9 2 2 -2 1 22 -25 -21 -24 700-850 TADV 2 3 4 3 5 8 17 36 21 11 3 -3 0 -3 1 -3 -7 LAND (KM) 964 935 909 854 800 636 369 237 401 584 735 882 1039 1168 1283 1456 1701 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 14.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 17.1 19.6 22.6 25.0 26.5 27.2 27.5 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.2 163.5 163.9 164.0 164.1 163.7 162.9 162.4 162.3 163.1 164.6 166.4 168.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 6 7 10 14 14 10 7 8 8 7 5 7 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 34 38 36 39 31 27 13 8 5 5 8 1 4 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -24. -33. -42. -50. -56. -60. -64. -66. -69. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -9. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -5. -3. -1. 1. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 14. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -7. -10. -13. -15. -16. -15. -15. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -7. -10. -12. -21. -28. -34. -41. -45. -48. -50. -51. -53. -55. -59. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.6 163.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 603.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 41.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.38 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.6% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 5.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##