* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 111 108 106 101 90 81 75 74 69 66 63 60 54 50 48 47 V (KT) LAND 115 111 108 106 101 90 81 75 74 69 66 63 60 54 50 48 47 V (KT) LGEM 115 111 107 104 101 93 79 63 52 45 41 38 34 32 30 30 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 8 8 16 23 30 32 24 25 21 18 25 29 31 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 3 4 10 13 4 6 5 8 9 6 3 -4 2 2 SHEAR DIR 142 167 209 211 220 228 208 222 238 271 286 284 250 250 253 266 229 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.4 27.5 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.9 27.3 26.8 27.1 26.8 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 148 148 148 150 141 133 132 130 132 137 131 133 130 132 131 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.9 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -49.0 -49.1 -49.6 -50.5 -51.7 -52.1 -53.0 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.5 1.8 1.3 1.4 1.4 0.8 0.4 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 9 9 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 61 60 59 59 60 58 53 48 42 38 40 46 49 51 54 55 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 34 36 35 35 35 32 31 28 26 22 19 15 14 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 167 158 163 161 168 145 125 118 96 74 68 55 47 50 41 14 14 200 MB DIV 51 71 60 84 96 31 30 19 5 -4 -40 12 1 17 28 7 0 700-850 TADV 2 3 3 2 2 12 21 32 10 -4 -1 -5 -4 -2 6 2 11 LAND (KM) 939 905 874 797 721 512 236 308 509 650 771 928 1128 1264 1340 1500 1746 LAT (DEG N) 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.2 18.2 21.1 23.9 25.6 26.5 26.8 27.1 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.4 163.7 164.0 163.9 163.7 163.3 162.4 162.3 163.2 164.2 165.6 167.4 169.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 9 13 14 12 8 6 7 9 8 5 6 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 33 39 38 38 37 30 14 7 7 4 5 12 8 9 8 9 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -9. -17. -26. -35. -45. -52. -58. -62. -65. -67. -69. -70. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -5. -10. -12. -12. -8. -5. -2. -1. -0. -2. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 11. 10. 9. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 0. 1. 1. -4. -6. -10. -12. -16. -18. -21. -20. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -14. -25. -34. -40. -41. -46. -49. -52. -55. -61. -65. -67. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 13.9 163.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 614.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 42.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.39 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.6% 15.6% 13.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.5% 4.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 2.7% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##