* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 105 101 94 82 68 67 64 60 56 53 50 45 42 39 36 V (KT) LAND 110 107 105 101 94 82 68 67 64 60 56 53 50 45 42 39 36 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 103 99 95 83 67 55 47 41 38 35 33 32 32 30 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 12 18 22 29 37 31 23 26 26 23 29 34 31 27 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 -1 4 7 13 6 2 8 5 7 6 6 0 5 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 199 239 231 226 227 220 213 231 252 278 287 262 247 235 243 237 211 SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.1 27.7 26.9 26.9 26.8 26.7 27.2 26.4 27.0 26.6 26.7 26.9 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 145 144 146 143 134 132 131 130 136 128 133 127 129 133 133 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -50.0 -49.6 -49.7 -49.6 -49.2 -49.1 -49.4 -50.1 -51.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 58 56 57 57 58 56 50 44 42 42 47 46 48 55 60 57 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 35 36 34 36 31 32 29 27 23 20 16 15 16 14 13 850 MB ENV VOR 160 161 163 166 160 134 118 105 88 68 61 60 54 66 44 42 52 200 MB DIV 68 50 58 76 69 49 6 5 -5 -27 -1 2 28 46 93 7 13 700-850 TADV 5 3 3 3 9 22 35 23 4 0 -5 0 0 7 15 17 25 LAND (KM) 904 854 806 707 609 350 255 434 601 752 911 1090 1294 1416 1469 1637 1933 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 15.0 15.6 16.5 17.4 20.0 23.0 25.1 26.3 27.1 27.5 27.6 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.8 164.0 164.2 164.0 163.7 163.0 162.4 162.7 163.7 165.0 166.8 169.0 171.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 9 11 14 13 9 7 7 9 10 8 4 6 10 14 HEAT CONTENT 34 34 36 29 28 19 10 9 5 4 12 3 8 3 8 6 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 622 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -8. -17. -26. -36. -44. -51. -57. -61. -64. -66. -67. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -5. -8. -14. -16. -14. -10. -6. -4. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 10. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. -1. 1. -4. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -22. -21. -18. -18. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -9. -16. -28. -42. -43. -46. -50. -54. -57. -60. -65. -68. -71. -74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.4 163.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.38 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 610.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.48 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.88 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 36.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.33 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 15.2% 12.5% 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 5.2% 4.2% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 2.6% 2.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##