* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/06/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 104 98 92 75 65 66 64 61 57 53 51 52 47 47 46 V (KT) LAND 110 107 104 98 92 75 65 66 64 61 57 53 51 52 47 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 110 107 103 98 92 77 62 52 45 41 37 34 34 36 36 37 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 11 17 26 29 38 33 22 27 27 26 31 20 22 22 17 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 7 9 7 5 8 7 8 11 5 9 -1 -1 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 208 229 224 229 234 222 235 244 266 282 268 247 237 261 248 245 279 SST (C) 28.2 28.2 28.0 28.2 28.0 27.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.5 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.9 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 145 146 144 147 145 142 131 131 130 131 129 130 132 128 130 133 126 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -50.1 -50.0 -50.3 -50.3 -49.7 -49.8 -49.3 -49.2 -49.1 -49.9 -50.8 -51.7 -51.8 -52.3 -53.3 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.4 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.8 0.0 -0.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 700-500 MB RH 59 57 58 59 57 53 47 44 44 46 48 47 50 56 61 63 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 32 32 33 31 29 29 26 24 20 16 14 19 17 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 159 154 163 150 136 121 111 97 69 68 53 62 62 94 75 57 48 200 MB DIV 43 85 100 85 39 18 26 1 8 -28 -2 37 81 26 33 20 -4 700-850 TADV 3 2 2 7 17 26 29 14 2 -6 -7 -4 4 13 14 9 -4 LAND (KM) 864 777 691 564 439 187 297 502 676 818 993 1148 1264 1372 1483 1676 1940 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.5 18.6 21.4 24.3 26.1 27.4 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.8 163.7 163.5 163.1 162.7 162.0 161.6 162.2 163.2 165.1 167.7 169.7 171.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 8 10 12 13 15 11 9 8 10 10 8 5 5 7 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 35 29 27 28 16 8 8 5 4 3 6 8 6 7 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 4 CX,CY: 0/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 650 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -9. -18. -28. -38. -46. -53. -59. -64. -66. -68. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -4. -8. -12. -20. -20. -15. -10. -6. -3. -2. -2. -3. -6. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -7. -11. -15. -19. -19. -13. -13. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -12. -18. -35. -45. -44. -46. -49. -53. -57. -59. -58. -63. -63. -64. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 14.8 163.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.05 0.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 31.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.14 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 602.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.53 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.3% 12.4% 9.6% 8.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 4.2% 3.2% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.6% 1.6% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/06/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##