* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 101 97 92 84 68 59 56 53 51 47 44 42 38 38 32 30 V (KT) LAND 105 101 97 92 84 68 59 56 53 51 47 44 42 38 38 32 30 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 97 92 85 68 52 43 38 35 33 31 30 31 31 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 17 22 27 32 41 24 21 31 26 27 33 27 33 32 27 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 5 6 10 11 2 6 9 4 8 6 6 5 4 11 5 9 SHEAR DIR 217 225 228 234 232 229 236 258 286 271 263 267 309 343 334 325 327 SST (C) 28.2 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 26.9 26.7 26.7 26.7 27.0 26.1 26.7 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.9 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 146 146 145 134 131 130 130 133 124 129 131 128 128 133 131 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.0 -50.2 -50.2 -49.8 -49.8 -49.7 -49.5 -49.3 -49.7 -50.3 -51.1 -51.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -51.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.1 1.3 1.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.3 -0.2 0.3 0.8 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 2 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 54 53 49 45 43 41 43 42 43 44 47 49 46 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 32 32 29 25 22 19 17 14 11 11 11 17 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 158 165 150 138 122 120 95 75 49 56 38 28 43 72 92 97 125 200 MB DIV 88 95 77 39 14 14 19 6 -27 -16 13 16 17 -1 -4 -12 -10 700-850 TADV 2 1 6 15 29 31 12 8 1 -13 -3 -6 5 2 9 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 800 703 608 459 316 185 405 609 761 905 1046 1168 1261 1346 1455 1629 1881 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 16.3 17.1 18.5 19.8 22.7 25.3 27.0 27.7 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.7 163.5 163.2 162.8 162.4 161.8 161.8 162.6 164.3 166.3 168.3 169.8 170.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 11 14 14 14 11 8 8 9 8 6 4 4 6 9 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 30 26 28 23 8 8 5 5 7 0 6 9 7 6 7 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 678 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -8. -17. -27. -36. -44. -51. -57. -62. -64. -65. -66. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -10. -15. -21. -19. -13. -9. -5. -3. -1. -1. -3. -7. -9. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 7. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. -2. -6. -11. -16. -19. -23. -25. -23. -21. -14. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -21. -37. -46. -49. -52. -54. -58. -61. -63. -67. -67. -73. -75. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 15.4 163.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 37.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 624.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.20 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 62.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.47 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.89 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.98 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -55.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.53 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##