* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/07/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 100 95 88 79 63 55 53 49 46 43 41 39 33 26 23 19 V (KT) LAND 105 100 95 88 79 63 55 53 49 46 43 41 39 33 26 23 19 V (KT) LGEM 105 101 95 88 80 62 48 40 36 32 30 29 28 26 23 20 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 20 26 30 37 35 23 28 29 32 38 34 27 32 18 18 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 8 11 9 5 10 4 5 4 0 6 1 0 4 -2 9 SHEAR DIR 231 227 236 228 226 238 252 275 262 261 259 282 327 11 360 328 310 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.0 27.6 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.3 26.5 27.0 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 144 146 145 146 142 133 130 131 132 126 127 132 129 129 128 123 119 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.0 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.8 -49.5 -49.3 -49.3 -50.0 -50.7 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -51.9 -52.5 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.7 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.6 0.6 0.3 -0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 60 58 56 55 51 47 46 44 46 46 46 46 50 54 50 51 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 33 35 34 33 29 25 24 20 16 14 12 11 9 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 169 154 144 130 120 117 89 62 56 46 49 31 40 40 24 23 23 200 MB DIV 99 71 44 30 35 -15 9 2 -28 8 -17 5 -8 -16 -16 -7 -12 700-850 TADV 2 4 12 26 29 33 8 1 -6 -10 -6 -6 -1 0 0 0 -15 LAND (KM) 716 590 467 314 175 260 491 658 852 1007 1100 1207 1340 1464 1585 1685 1781 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 17.2 18.3 19.7 21.0 23.9 26.2 27.4 27.9 27.9 27.5 27.6 28.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.4 163.0 162.7 162.2 161.7 161.6 161.7 162.8 165.5 167.7 169.2 170.4 171.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 11 13 14 14 13 9 10 11 8 6 6 6 6 6 4 5 HEAT CONTENT 31 27 28 22 16 7 8 5 4 1 4 9 8 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 15/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -19. -29. -37. -46. -53. -59. -63. -66. -67. -69. -69. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -12. -17. -22. -18. -13. -8. -4. -2. -1. -1. -3. -6. -8. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -13. -20. -25. -28. -29. -27. -26. -25. -24. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -17. -26. -42. -50. -52. -56. -59. -62. -64. -66. -72. -79. -82. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 16.1 163.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.08 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 632.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##