* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 94 89 79 70 59 53 52 48 45 43 43 41 37 33 31 32 V (KT) LAND 100 94 89 79 70 59 53 52 48 45 43 43 41 37 33 31 32 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 88 80 72 56 46 40 36 32 30 28 28 26 25 22 20 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 24 27 37 39 26 25 26 23 25 29 12 8 4 4 4 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 8 10 8 4 5 7 7 8 7 7 0 -3 0 -2 0 4 SHEAR DIR 230 234 229 224 228 248 262 281 271 254 258 262 297 5 8 344 259 SST (C) 27.8 28.0 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.4 26.6 26.6 27.0 26.5 27.0 27.1 26.9 26.6 26.9 26.6 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 142 145 145 141 135 128 129 129 134 128 132 132 130 129 131 127 122 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -49.7 -49.5 -49.6 -49.6 -49.3 -49.1 -49.5 -50.0 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.7 -52.4 -52.9 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 -0.1 0.4 0.0 -0.7 -0.6 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 51 47 44 43 40 41 43 41 44 46 50 49 48 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 34 31 30 27 24 23 19 16 13 12 10 8 6 5 6 850 MB ENV VOR 153 142 129 119 124 96 77 57 55 46 42 48 39 27 11 6 -2 200 MB DIV 57 35 46 30 1 -3 -11 -32 0 11 -7 -14 -20 -36 -26 -11 11 700-850 TADV 6 14 23 28 35 15 10 4 -8 0 -9 0 -1 3 6 5 4 LAND (KM) 602 457 313 176 129 340 544 715 853 1020 1168 1279 1327 1461 1648 1755 1762 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 18.2 19.4 20.9 22.3 24.9 26.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.3 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.9 162.4 161.8 161.6 161.4 161.2 162.0 163.8 166.0 168.3 170.2 171.4 171.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 15 14 11 9 9 10 9 7 3 5 7 7 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 29 25 17 9 4 6 5 6 3 11 8 7 6 8 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 9 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -19. -29. -36. -44. -50. -56. -60. -62. -63. -64. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -8. -14. -18. -20. -15. -10. -6. -2. -0. 1. 2. 1. -1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -13. -20. -25. -28. -28. -28. -27. -26. -25. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -21. -30. -41. -47. -48. -52. -55. -57. -57. -59. -63. -67. -69. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 17.0 162.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 41.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 45.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 611.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.21 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 23.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.61 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##