* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/08/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 77 69 62 53 49 45 43 42 51 57 49 39 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 87 77 69 62 53 49 45 43 42 51 57 49 39 32 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 88 79 69 61 49 42 36 32 29 32 34 30 25 21 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 35 37 33 26 28 27 25 24 29 12 30 28 27 34 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 12 7 3 3 4 9 11 12 7 0 0 5 7 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 219 216 219 232 246 266 282 275 256 252 261 339 352 351 352 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.3 26.8 26.5 26.3 26.5 26.6 27.0 26.1 26.9 26.9 26.6 25.6 25.9 26.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 133 129 127 128 130 134 124 131 131 129 118 120 123 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.5 -49.6 -49.5 -49.2 -48.9 -48.6 -49.2 -49.9 -50.4 -50.6 -50.8 -51.7 -51.5 -51.0 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.2 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 4 3 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 50 46 44 42 42 43 44 42 38 40 46 52 49 46 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 38 34 32 33 30 27 26 22 20 17 22 27 23 18 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 126 125 130 119 99 82 57 63 56 70 103 142 122 115 109 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 58 58 40 3 4 -15 -34 0 17 37 47 -20 -6 -21 -8 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 26 45 37 20 11 5 -9 -1 -1 4 9 1 0 5 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 288 122 106 224 347 565 758 891 1055 1204 1320 1425 1555 1663 1749 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.5 21.1 22.7 23.9 25.1 27.0 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.7 28.1 29.2 31.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.5 161.2 160.8 160.9 160.9 161.5 163.5 166.1 168.5 170.3 171.4 171.9 172.0 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 14 12 11 9 10 11 9 7 5 8 7 5 5 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 14 8 5 2 4 5 6 0 9 8 6 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 13 CX,CY: 7/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -12. -22. -31. -38. -45. -52. -57. -62. -65. -66. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -10. -14. -16. -15. -10. -4. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 9. 7. 6. 4. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -12. -20. -26. -30. -21. -13. -17. -21. -21. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -18. -26. -33. -42. -46. -50. -52. -53. -44. -38. -46. -56. -63. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 19.5 161.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.08 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 48.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 689.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.13 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 40.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.32 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -63.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##