* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/08/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 88 81 74 67 57 50 46 42 40 39 42 46 39 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 95 88 81 74 67 57 50 46 42 40 39 42 46 39 33 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 95 90 81 71 63 51 43 36 31 28 27 27 27 23 20 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 34 32 24 22 31 23 24 30 25 16 30 26 26 31 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 9 7 4 9 1 11 8 7 6 4 4 10 8 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 217 228 234 243 248 279 281 274 254 272 303 349 334 320 283 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.2 26.2 26.5 26.6 26.5 26.5 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.5 25.8 25.9 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 134 128 126 126 128 130 129 128 131 129 128 117 119 121 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.6 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.1 -49.0 -49.6 -49.9 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.6 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 0.8 0.7 1.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 6 6 4 3 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 45 46 43 44 40 43 44 44 45 44 48 48 42 27 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 31 31 30 28 25 23 19 16 13 13 16 22 18 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 133 111 97 98 62 66 51 53 40 67 93 100 108 87 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 37 6 0 -18 -20 -28 0 10 22 33 6 -1 5 -1 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 25 44 35 17 11 6 -4 -10 -6 -1 1 9 8 0 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 111 94 229 350 473 682 839 977 1151 1252 1297 1395 1562 1684 1776 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 22.6 24.1 25.2 26.3 27.8 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.8 28.3 29.5 31.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 161.0 160.8 160.5 160.7 160.9 162.4 164.7 167.2 169.6 170.8 171.0 171.3 171.8 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 13 11 10 9 11 11 8 3 4 8 7 5 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 13 9 2 1 2 4 4 4 5 9 8 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 16 CX,CY: 5/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -24. -33. -41. -48. -55. -61. -65. -69. -69. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -5. -10. -12. -13. -13. -7. -1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 3. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 6. 9. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -12. -20. -27. -30. -29. -23. -15. -17. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -28. -38. -45. -49. -53. -55. -56. -53. -49. -56. -62. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 21.1 161.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.05 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 46.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 719.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.91 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.27 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##