* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/08/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 66 61 54 50 47 45 42 41 37 42 41 41 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 76 66 61 54 50 47 45 42 41 37 42 41 41 40 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 78 70 63 57 48 41 36 32 30 29 29 28 27 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 25 23 28 29 27 22 28 11 24 29 21 15 44 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 6 9 7 4 6 6 6 5 5 5 3 0 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 239 245 252 265 285 273 263 249 302 356 359 334 285 264 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.2 26.1 26.3 26.5 26.6 26.7 26.0 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.5 26.3 25.9 25.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 132 127 125 127 129 130 131 123 127 128 125 126 124 121 119 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -49.3 -49.2 -49.1 -49.1 -49.5 -49.5 -50.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.1 0.8 1.2 0.9 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 46 44 44 44 43 43 46 46 43 45 43 36 26 18 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 27 29 25 24 21 17 14 13 12 17 18 22 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 138 110 99 101 79 63 61 52 47 67 74 102 110 46 -25 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 7 7 7 -13 -23 -5 10 36 43 -6 0 -13 5 -19 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 44 35 15 13 14 5 -1 -6 -5 3 7 8 0 -10 -24 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 253 387 498 610 793 940 1097 1231 1357 1463 1561 1663 1792 1936 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.0 24.3 25.6 26.5 27.4 28.4 28.5 28.2 28.3 28.9 29.7 30.5 31.1 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.7 160.6 160.5 161.0 161.6 163.6 166.1 168.6 170.2 171.3 172.0 172.6 173.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 10 11 9 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 6 1 1 2 5 5 4 0 5 5 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -22. -30. -37. -44. -50. -56. -60. -63. -63. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -6. -8. -9. -7. -2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 11. 6. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 12. 12. 12. 10. 9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -2. -5. -6. -10. -18. -24. -26. -27. -18. -15. -10. -7. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -19. -23. -31. -35. -38. -40. -43. -44. -48. -43. -44. -44. -45. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 23.0 160.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.11 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 44.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 638.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.18 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 35.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.42 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -33.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.24 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##