* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122026 09/08/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 59 51 45 42 40 37 36 36 37 39 38 35 33 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 51 45 42 40 37 36 36 37 39 38 35 33 27 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 60 51 45 41 34 30 26 25 24 24 23 20 19 17 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 28 23 21 28 28 25 24 27 24 13 20 28 25 35 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 10 5 6 7 8 8 9 1 5 8 3 6 3 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 239 248 266 283 271 262 245 243 242 341 350 284 255 261 N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.6 25.9 26.6 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.1 25.0 25.1 26.0 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 128 128 128 130 122 128 129 127 127 125 112 112 124 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.3 -49.0 -48.9 -48.8 -48.7 -49.3 -49.5 -50.3 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.5 -50.3 -52.2 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.7 1.1 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 1 2 2 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 43 45 43 43 42 44 43 42 41 45 42 36 25 30 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 31 29 27 26 26 21 18 17 18 19 20 19 20 17 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 107 100 73 63 74 54 53 42 57 79 116 110 20 -8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 2 -2 4 -1 -23 14 4 33 24 11 5 2 11 13 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 36 17 12 16 5 -7 -8 -4 0 6 8 0 -4 -28 -13 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 278 418 559 654 753 929 1073 1190 1289 1366 1476 1689 1996 2004 1779 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 25.8 27.0 27.7 28.3 28.8 28.4 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.9 31.5 33.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 160.7 161.0 161.3 162.1 162.9 165.5 168.1 170.0 170.9 171.4 172.0 173.4 175.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 11 10 10 11 10 7 4 5 8 12 7 5 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 1 4 4 3 3 0 6 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 17 CX,CY: 0/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -17. -23. -29. -35. -40. -44. -48. -52. -51. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -2. 1. 6. 10. 11. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 10. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 12. 10. 10. 9. 8. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -6. -9. -10. -10. -8. -5. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -12. -18. -22. -21. -19. -16. -16. -14. -15. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -11. -19. -25. -28. -30. -33. -34. -34. -33. -31. -32. -35. -37. -43. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 24.5 160.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.23 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -25.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.00 0.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 41.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 537.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.30 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.43 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -2.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122026 LOWELL 09/08/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##