* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/02/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 64 70 75 79 82 84 83 77 70 63 57 52 48 46 48 50 V (KT) LAND 60 64 70 75 79 82 84 83 77 70 63 57 52 48 46 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 71 73 78 80 78 75 70 64 57 52 46 41 38 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 11 11 9 3 5 4 6 7 5 9 6 6 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -5 -6 -4 -5 -2 -3 -5 -4 -2 -3 -4 -4 0 SHEAR DIR 322 339 3 7 4 40 128 146 95 75 84 17 42 310 351 255 236 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.5 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.8 27.1 26.9 25.7 25.7 24.6 23.6 23.6 24.3 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 157 154 149 148 141 138 141 133 131 119 119 108 98 98 106 95 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.5 -49.2 -48.8 -48.9 -48.6 -49.5 -49.6 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 76 75 76 77 74 72 72 69 66 63 59 52 52 50 46 41 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 33 34 36 37 36 38 38 37 35 34 31 29 27 25 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 29 31 45 57 59 69 79 89 90 101 102 104 84 70 45 58 64 200 MB DIV 71 53 42 55 58 46 30 5 -4 -5 10 -3 9 5 -30 1 20 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -2 -2 0 2 0 2 0 0 3 0 3 0 8 9 LAND (KM) 616 594 585 602 631 684 725 797 818 858 935 1056 1210 1370 1463 1568 1701 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.5 20.2 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.2 23.5 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.0 112.7 113.4 114.2 114.9 116.5 117.8 119.1 120.3 121.4 122.8 124.4 126.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 20 21 19 17 16 7 5 7 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 617 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 12. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. -0. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 3. 0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 15. 19. 22. 24. 23. 17. 10. 3. -3. -8. -12. -14. -12. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 17.7 112.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.53 8.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 6.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.76 10.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -9.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 10.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 6.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 1.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -64.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.66 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 4.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 41% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.2% 52.6% 41.1% 32.4% 22.4% 25.6% 19.0% 13.7% Logistic: 6.0% 15.1% 3.7% 2.2% 2.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.7% 4.4% 1.5% 0.6% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 10.6% 24.0% 15.4% 11.7% 8.2% 8.9% 6.5% 4.6% DTOPS: 15.0% 47.0% 38.0% 30.0% 28.0% 30.0% 10.0% 0.0% SDCON: 12.8% 35.5% 26.7% 20.8% 18.1% 19.4% 8.2% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/02/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##