* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/03/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 76 82 89 92 97 95 93 83 76 69 62 58 53 52 51 48 V (KT) LAND 70 76 82 89 92 97 95 93 83 76 69 62 58 53 52 51 48 V (KT) LGEM 70 76 81 85 88 93 93 90 84 78 71 63 56 51 47 45 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 9 9 9 5 3 1 4 4 5 8 3 6 12 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -4 -5 -6 -4 -2 -4 -3 -6 -5 -3 -3 -4 -6 -3 2 SHEAR DIR 357 18 14 19 39 37 60 178 110 34 46 20 116 312 235 246 260 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.2 27.4 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 25.4 25.0 24.9 23.7 23.5 24.0 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 149 148 145 137 141 136 132 127 116 112 111 99 96 101 101 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -50.3 -50.3 -49.9 -49.6 -50.3 -49.6 -49.5 -48.7 -49.2 -48.3 -48.9 -48.8 -49.5 -49.7 -50.4 -50.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.2 1.0 1.1 0.9 1.2 0.9 1.4 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 74 75 76 75 74 73 72 70 67 65 60 58 59 50 49 45 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 29 31 32 34 33 35 35 38 36 35 34 34 33 29 30 28 25 850 MB ENV VOR 32 45 58 60 62 64 72 81 82 94 89 74 67 56 48 27 18 200 MB DIV 51 56 66 64 51 11 43 -4 17 18 3 -7 27 0 22 2 13 700-850 TADV 0 -4 -1 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 1 0 3 0 7 12 15 LAND (KM) 594 595 607 638 668 709 762 800 833 867 930 1053 1233 1392 1439 1481 1562 LAT (DEG N) 18.2 18.6 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.4 21.1 21.8 22.3 23.0 23.7 23.9 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.7 113.4 114.1 114.9 115.7 117.1 118.4 119.7 120.7 121.8 123.1 124.6 126.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 9 8 7 7 6 6 7 6 8 8 8 8 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 21 19 18 16 11 4 7 5 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 43.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -22. -25. -28. -31. -33. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 12. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 4. 3. 5. 6. 10. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. -0. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 10. 5. 0. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 22. 27. 25. 23. 13. 6. -1. -8. -12. -17. -18. -19. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 18.2 112.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.43 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 10.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 154.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -8.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 8.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 6.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 1.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 2.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 41% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 50% is 4.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 40.8% 50.0% 39.0% 29.2% 20.6% 22.7% 17.5% 11.6% Logistic: 12.0% 23.4% 7.3% 5.2% 5.1% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.7% 5.4% 2.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 18.5% 26.2% 16.3% 11.8% 8.6% 8.2% 6.0% 3.9% DTOPS: 30.0% 25.0% 15.0% 13.0% 10.0% 8.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 24.2% 25.6% 15.6% 12.4% 9.3% 8.1% 3.5% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##