* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/03/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 91 95 102 99 94 84 76 68 59 55 50 49 49 47 V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 91 95 102 99 94 84 76 68 59 55 50 49 49 47 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 84 87 90 93 93 90 85 78 69 61 54 48 45 44 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 10 8 7 4 5 2 0 6 6 12 6 4 8 16 13 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -5 -5 -1 -5 -5 -4 -2 -4 -4 -4 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 30 29 39 45 55 25 31 217 39 27 21 41 265 282 253 249 271 SST (C) 29.0 28.5 28.4 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.2 26.0 25.7 24.3 23.0 24.0 23.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 149 148 146 142 138 141 134 131 124 122 120 105 91 101 97 92 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.3 -50.1 -49.7 -50.1 -50.0 -49.7 -49.3 -48.8 -48.7 -48.4 -49.2 -49.0 -49.8 -49.8 -50.6 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 75 76 76 74 73 72 71 69 62 61 58 57 55 51 50 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 31 33 32 33 37 37 38 37 36 35 32 31 28 27 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 49 59 67 69 74 70 73 68 73 75 75 58 45 31 26 12 -13 200 MB DIV 45 61 49 52 41 22 -3 13 -16 3 -9 -14 20 -12 36 9 -13 700-850 TADV -3 0 -1 -1 -2 0 1 2 0 1 3 0 5 3 12 18 21 LAND (KM) 585 599 623 659 679 762 805 836 866 930 1026 1156 1312 1402 1438 1489 1544 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 19.1 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.5 22.9 23.1 23.3 23.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 113.4 114.1 114.8 115.6 116.3 117.9 118.9 120.1 121.3 122.5 123.8 125.4 127.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 7 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 17 16 12 7 5 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 48.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 1. -2. -6. -11. -15. -20. -23. -27. -30. -34. -36. -39. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 11. 13. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 7. 10. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -2. -3. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 12. 6. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 16. 20. 27. 24. 19. 9. 1. -7. -16. -20. -25. -26. -26. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.7 113.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.36 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 7.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 173.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.71 -5.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.79 4.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.5% 36.4% 25.7% 18.9% 14.7% 20.5% 15.8% 10.1% Logistic: 13.8% 24.0% 7.2% 5.0% 3.5% 1.5% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.4% 4.7% 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 15.2% 21.7% 11.5% 8.2% 6.2% 7.3% 5.4% 3.4% DTOPS: 36.0% 37.0% 33.0% 19.0% 15.0% 10.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 25.6% 29.3% 22.2% 13.6% 10.6% 8.6% 3.2% 1.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##