* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/03/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 83 86 88 92 91 89 83 74 69 62 57 53 52 51 47 46 V (KT) LAND 80 83 86 88 92 91 89 83 74 69 62 57 53 52 51 47 46 V (KT) LGEM 80 84 87 88 89 88 85 78 71 64 57 52 47 44 40 35 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 9 7 5 6 8 3 3 7 3 8 2 8 10 15 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -6 -5 -3 -5 -2 0 -3 -1 -2 0 1 3 -1 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 18 24 34 24 342 46 54 58 32 13 332 307 237 229 227 232 266 SST (C) 28.4 28.5 28.3 27.9 27.5 28.0 27.6 27.0 26.7 26.1 26.2 25.1 23.4 23.9 23.7 23.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 146 142 138 143 138 132 129 123 125 113 96 100 98 91 82 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.0 -49.8 -50.1 -50.1 -49.5 -49.3 -48.7 -49.1 -48.1 -48.8 -48.5 -49.2 -49.4 -50.4 -50.6 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.4 0.9 1.0 0.8 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 72 73 69 68 62 57 53 48 46 42 39 38 33 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 34 35 39 37 38 38 35 35 32 31 28 28 27 24 21 850 MB ENV VOR 56 65 71 75 71 67 76 72 78 89 84 84 65 56 53 43 36 200 MB DIV 50 46 55 39 4 23 -10 1 -8 20 -8 23 18 28 19 3 -24 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -4 -2 4 1 2 0 1 2 11 3 12 11 11 8 LAND (KM) 629 670 706 731 763 820 841 878 919 1019 1155 1303 1424 1458 1498 1529 1584 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.6 21.4 22.0 22.6 22.8 23.0 23.3 23.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 114.4 115.2 116.0 116.7 117.4 118.7 119.8 121.0 122.1 123.5 125.2 127.0 128.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 17 15 8 5 10 5 3 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 531 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -14. -19. -24. -28. -32. -36. -39. -42. -45. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 5. 3. 5. 6. 3. 3. -1. -2. -5. -5. -5. -8. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 12. 11. 9. 3. -6. -11. -18. -23. -27. -28. -29. -33. -34. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.0 114.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 210.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 16.1% 22.5% 19.1% 16.0% 12.9% 18.4% 13.6% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 11.2% 2.8% 1.7% 1.3% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 1.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 11.6% 7.3% 5.9% 4.8% 6.3% 4.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 14.0% 16.0% 12.0% 7.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.8% 13.8% 9.6% 6.4% 4.4% 3.6% 2.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##