* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/03/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 88 91 92 87 80 71 63 56 50 47 46 42 39 34 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 88 91 92 87 80 71 63 56 50 47 46 42 39 34 V (KT) LGEM 80 83 85 86 86 85 82 76 68 61 55 49 45 41 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 7 7 7 3 3 9 6 3 6 8 11 17 23 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -5 -5 -4 -3 -1 -4 -1 -1 -2 -1 0 8 -1 -4 -4 SHEAR DIR 29 53 57 34 15 37 86 35 67 335 355 252 248 233 245 245 243 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.2 27.7 27.6 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.5 24.3 23.3 23.9 23.0 22.6 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 149 148 145 140 139 144 135 131 128 125 117 105 94 101 91 87 82 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.8 -50.1 -50.3 -49.9 -49.4 -49.3 -48.9 -48.9 -48.6 -49.1 -49.0 -49.7 -50.2 -51.1 -51.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 76 74 73 73 70 68 64 55 53 48 45 41 39 36 32 24 15 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 34 35 37 39 39 37 36 35 33 32 29 28 27 24 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 70 71 77 69 63 72 73 68 78 94 87 85 74 57 55 63 90 200 MB DIV 67 63 40 0 0 -15 -3 -31 -11 0 -1 11 9 12 15 9 -32 700-850 TADV -1 0 -2 -2 0 1 5 1 0 4 2 12 6 18 1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 676 726 760 768 784 850 858 896 981 1079 1188 1327 1437 1465 1463 1509 1610 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.3 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.8 21.6 22.3 22.4 22.8 23.4 23.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.1 115.9 116.6 117.2 117.9 119.2 120.3 121.5 122.7 124.2 125.8 127.5 129.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 19 19 14 7 6 10 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -3. -9. -15. -20. -25. -29. -33. -37. -41. -44. -48. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 11. 10. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 11. 11. 12. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 11. 12. 7. -0. -9. -17. -24. -30. -33. -34. -38. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.1 115.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 2.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.81 6.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 238.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 22.3% 18.7% 15.5% 12.8% 18.1% 13.5% 0.0% Logistic: 6.5% 11.5% 2.5% 1.6% 1.3% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.4% 11.4% 7.1% 5.7% 4.7% 6.2% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 20.0% 12.0% 7.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 7.7% 15.7% 9.5% 6.3% 5.3% 4.1% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/03/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##