* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/04/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 82 85 87 88 89 84 77 66 59 50 45 42 36 31 26 18 V (KT) LAND 80 82 85 87 88 89 84 77 66 59 50 45 42 36 31 26 18 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 81 81 81 80 77 71 64 55 48 42 37 32 29 25 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 5 6 5 4 3 6 6 3 8 5 9 16 22 27 39 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -5 -4 -3 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 2 4 -1 7 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 51 72 65 34 359 268 34 42 55 333 327 252 226 244 249 240 263 SST (C) 28.4 28.0 27.6 27.6 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.7 25.9 25.8 24.6 23.0 23.1 22.2 21.7 21.8 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 139 139 142 138 132 129 121 120 108 91 92 82 77 78 80 200 MB T (C) -49.7 -50.0 -50.3 -49.9 -49.4 -49.6 -48.8 -49.1 -48.3 -48.9 -48.6 -49.3 -49.8 -50.8 -50.6 -51.7 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.4 0.9 1.1 0.8 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 69 67 65 59 55 49 44 40 38 36 34 26 15 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 38 38 38 38 38 37 34 33 30 28 27 24 23 22 18 850 MB ENV VOR 65 65 59 58 57 68 56 59 70 73 76 61 57 62 86 103 -1 200 MB DIV 67 35 8 13 16 -19 4 -13 6 -4 13 15 8 36 28 -31 -40 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -1 0 4 2 4 1 2 2 6 8 12 10 5 2 -11 LAND (KM) 708 722 740 765 797 832 841 889 975 1083 1220 1296 1299 1310 1313 1339 1366 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 19.8 20.1 20.4 20.7 21.5 22.3 22.8 23.1 23.5 24.1 24.8 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 115.9 116.6 117.2 117.9 118.5 119.8 120.8 121.9 123.2 124.7 126.5 128.0 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 17 8 5 6 9 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -11. -17. -23. -28. -32. -38. -43. -48. -52. -57. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -12. -12. -12. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 9. 4. -3. -14. -21. -30. -35. -38. -44. -49. -54. -62. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.5 115.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.83 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.83 3.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.09 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.63 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.3% 22.5% 18.5% 15.2% 12.5% 17.6% 13.4% 0.0% Logistic: 5.3% 11.1% 2.5% 1.6% 1.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.2% 11.2% 7.0% 5.6% 4.5% 6.0% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 6.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 8.1% 8.6% 5.5% 4.3% 3.2% 3.5% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##