* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/04/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 87 88 89 90 89 80 71 61 51 44 39 34 26 22 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 87 88 89 90 89 80 71 61 51 44 39 34 26 22 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 86 86 85 84 81 75 68 58 48 41 35 30 24 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 4 4 1 9 9 5 10 10 14 25 22 39 53 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -2 -3 -4 1 -3 -1 1 0 0 3 6 1 4 3 0 SHEAR DIR 85 58 355 324 301 199 55 61 57 322 266 231 227 251 239 225 189 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.9 27.2 26.9 26.2 25.4 24.6 23.8 22.4 21.8 21.2 21.2 20.7 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 143 138 140 143 142 134 131 124 116 108 99 85 78 72 73 68 69 200 MB T (C) -50.0 -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.4 -48.8 -48.8 -48.8 -48.9 -48.9 -49.8 -50.6 -51.5 -50.6 -50.0 -51.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 1.4 0.9 1.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 700-500 MB RH 68 69 67 66 65 63 55 53 46 45 39 39 36 34 31 29 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 38 36 37 38 39 36 35 34 31 29 27 26 22 20 20 23 850 MB ENV VOR 61 58 55 55 59 60 46 60 64 69 51 42 42 44 87 145 161 200 MB DIV 44 17 18 23 -19 -10 -8 -13 -2 3 9 28 31 25 10 8 -7 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 4 1 6 1 1 4 3 10 7 19 5 13 12 8 LAND (KM) 740 763 792 818 842 856 874 902 983 1094 1212 1207 1153 1069 959 863 785 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.0 20.3 20.7 21.1 21.8 22.5 23.2 23.7 24.2 24.8 25.7 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 117.4 118.1 118.7 119.4 120.5 121.4 122.4 123.7 125.2 126.7 127.9 128.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 9 5 7 9 8 4 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -7. -14. -21. -28. -34. -40. -47. -53. -59. -64. -69. -72. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 8. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -13. -13. -16. -16. -15. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. -5. -14. -24. -34. -41. -46. -51. -59. -63. -69. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.7 116.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.22 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 12.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.84 6.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 385.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.47 -3.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 21.8% 18.5% 15.6% 12.8% 17.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.4% 6.9% 1.8% 1.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.3% 9.6% 6.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.6% 5.8% 4.4% 3.3% 2.7% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##