* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/04/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 83 81 76 69 63 53 48 41 36 30 26 24 21 17 V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 83 81 76 69 63 53 48 41 36 30 26 24 21 17 V (KT) LGEM 85 85 85 83 82 76 69 61 52 44 37 32 27 23 20 18 17 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 4 7 4 6 6 7 4 5 8 6 11 15 23 31 41 35 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -2 -1 -1 0 -1 1 0 0 2 2 7 3 1 -4 SHEAR DIR 44 15 318 279 289 35 35 356 340 273 270 221 234 241 232 193 15 SST (C) 27.4 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.7 25.7 25.0 24.4 23.1 21.9 21.5 21.3 20.8 20.9 20.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 141 139 136 132 129 118 111 105 92 80 76 75 69 69 61 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -49.9 -49.4 -49.4 -49.5 -48.8 -49.0 -48.2 -48.9 -48.5 -49.3 -50.2 -50.9 -50.4 -50.1 -49.9 -50.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 1.1 0.5 0.5 1.4 1.7 2.0 1.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 63 64 57 52 45 43 43 42 43 42 34 31 31 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 38 37 38 37 38 37 35 35 32 31 27 26 24 22 21 20 20 850 MB ENV VOR 60 57 57 64 67 57 61 67 68 58 39 29 39 66 120 117 105 200 MB DIV 20 14 26 -7 -32 -4 -15 -13 -11 6 -1 32 8 16 8 20 18 700-850 TADV -1 0 4 0 0 5 2 2 7 8 7 10 18 11 11 5 -3 LAND (KM) 785 811 843 869 876 871 883 907 988 1075 1156 1108 1016 942 879 812 715 LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.2 23.0 23.8 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.6 28.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.6 118.3 118.9 119.6 120.2 121.1 122.0 122.9 124.1 125.3 126.6 127.6 128.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 9 11 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 6 8 9 7 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -2. -8. -15. -23. -30. -37. -44. -51. -57. -63. -68. -73. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 12. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -9. -11. -15. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -4. -9. -16. -22. -32. -37. -44. -48. -55. -59. -61. -64. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 19.9 117.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.20 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.80 5.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 431.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.5% 17.9% 15.9% 14.0% 11.4% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.2% 2.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 6.8% 5.5% 4.8% 3.9% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.9% 3.9% 3.2% 2.9% 1.9% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##