* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/04/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 85 84 83 80 74 66 57 50 45 40 34 29 25 24 16 N/A V (KT) LAND 85 85 84 83 80 74 66 57 50 45 40 34 29 25 24 16 N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 83 80 77 71 63 54 46 39 33 28 24 21 19 16 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 1 4 5 3 7 4 5 10 7 10 21 31 37 28 41 52 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -2 0 0 -4 0 0 3 -3 0 1 1 1 4 5 -7 SHEAR DIR 6 14 288 277 245 59 34 8 331 280 240 227 226 240 255 252 245 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.6 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.2 25.4 24.6 24.0 22.5 21.6 21.2 21.3 20.6 20.3 19.8 POT. INT. (KT) 139 141 139 136 134 132 123 115 107 101 86 77 73 74 67 64 61 200 MB T (C) -49.9 -49.4 -49.6 -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -48.9 -48.7 -48.9 -48.9 -49.8 -50.5 -50.8 -50.8 -51.9 -52.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.3 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 65 60 53 49 45 43 43 45 45 47 36 29 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 37 37 37 37 36 35 34 31 30 28 27 25 23 22 25 22 16 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 60 58 55 53 60 67 57 39 26 23 55 79 88 95 88 200 MB DIV 19 38 -15 -30 -17 -16 -23 4 -5 -1 16 22 14 -6 0 12 -8 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 5 1 2 5 5 9 6 16 14 10 -1 -6 -20 LAND (KM) 815 840 863 859 857 866 889 922 1007 1095 1084 1016 945 876 797 722 638 LAT (DEG N) 20.1 20.6 21.0 21.4 21.7 22.6 23.4 24.0 24.7 25.4 26.2 27.5 29.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 118.2 118.9 119.6 120.0 120.4 121.4 122.4 123.2 124.5 125.7 126.5 127.4 128.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 6 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -3. -8. -16. -25. -32. -39. -46. -54. -61. -67. -73. -77. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. 12. 10. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -12. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -19. -28. -35. -40. -45. -51. -56. -60. -61. -69. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.1 118.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 435.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -53.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.9% 17.8% 15.3% 13.3% 10.9% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 2.7% 0.8% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 6.8% 5.4% 4.5% 3.7% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.8% 3.9% 3.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/04/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##