* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/05/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 86 87 87 84 77 66 55 47 39 34 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 86 87 87 84 77 66 55 47 39 34 26 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 85 83 81 77 69 60 51 43 36 30 25 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 3 3 0 4 6 4 5 7 14 23 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 0 1 0 -2 1 3 0 -1 -1 1 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 315 300 288 105 35 37 46 335 295 253 219 223 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.7 25.8 24.9 24.3 22.9 21.6 21.2 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 137 134 132 129 119 110 104 90 77 73 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.4 -49.5 -49.3 -48.6 -49.1 -48.6 -49.0 -48.9 -49.4 -50.2 -51.0 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 0.8 0.9 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.5 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 63 63 60 56 51 44 41 44 43 44 45 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 38 37 37 35 33 30 29 26 25 22 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 53 57 51 53 59 62 49 26 29 36 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 -3 -33 -20 -5 -12 16 -17 14 6 19 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 2 -1 3 5 1 1 7 5 8 12 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 820 837 832 834 841 860 881 951 1026 1059 1001 932 855 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.0 22.4 23.1 23.8 24.5 25.2 26.2 27.4 28.8 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.7 119.3 119.8 120.4 120.9 121.8 122.6 123.8 124.9 126.0 127.0 127.8 128.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 7 4 4 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -18. -27. -34. -42. -50. -58. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -9. -11. -16. -16. -18. -20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. -1. -8. -19. -30. -38. -46. -51. -59. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.6 118.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.79 5.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 491.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.86 3.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.06 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.4% 20.2% 16.9% 14.4% 11.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.9% 3.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.4% 7.9% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 3.7% 4.4% 3.5% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##