* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/05/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 84 82 80 75 68 58 50 45 38 33 29 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 84 82 80 75 68 58 50 45 38 33 29 24 16 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 84 81 77 73 65 55 47 40 35 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 2 4 6 4 4 5 11 18 31 41 38 39 41 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 0 -4 1 0 3 -4 0 3 0 5 2 1 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 272 265 4 45 39 340 332 254 225 203 218 201 200 211 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.1 25.3 24.5 23.7 22.0 21.4 21.2 20.7 20.5 19.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 132 131 122 114 106 98 81 75 74 69 67 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.6 -49.5 -48.9 -49.0 -49.0 -48.9 -49.2 -49.2 -50.2 -50.6 -50.5 -50.2 -51.0 -51.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.0 0.7 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 60 55 51 46 42 43 43 46 46 47 41 37 36 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 36 37 36 35 33 33 30 29 28 26 26 25 22 16 15 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 51 53 47 47 55 64 61 52 42 39 69 54 56 60 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -34 -22 -11 -28 -15 -5 -12 3 37 40 18 -23 25 63 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 4 5 3 2 6 7 11 13 23 29 24 0 -9 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 836 832 833 842 851 876 906 990 1083 1038 968 895 833 735 609 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.1 21.6 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.6 24.3 24.9 25.7 26.8 28.2 29.9 32.0 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 119.9 120.4 121.0 121.5 122.4 123.2 124.4 125.7 126.7 127.6 128.4 129.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 7 7 7 9 10 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 7 4 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -37. -46. -54. -62. -70. -77. -82. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 16. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -17. -21. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -10. -17. -27. -35. -40. -47. -52. -56. -61. -69. -75. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 21.1 119.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.77 5.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 546.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -20.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -47.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 16.5% 14.6% 13.2% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 5.8% 5.0% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 2.9% 2.5% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 06 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##