* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/05/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 72 69 60 52 44 38 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 72 69 60 52 44 38 33 27 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 73 70 66 58 51 44 38 33 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 4 5 5 3 4 10 6 17 24 36 38 36 38 47 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -3 -1 0 -2 0 2 4 4 6 2 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 269 298 9 45 2 356 314 270 246 217 219 205 194 197 208 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.0 27.0 26.8 26.4 25.5 24.8 24.2 22.5 21.6 21.4 21.3 20.9 20.3 20.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 132 130 126 116 109 103 86 77 75 75 71 64 63 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.6 -49.4 -49.0 -49.0 -49.2 -48.7 -49.0 -48.8 -49.3 -50.0 -50.3 -49.8 -50.0 -50.9 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 1.0 1.2 1.6 0.7 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 59 55 51 51 44 42 41 42 45 47 41 34 25 22 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 37 36 35 33 33 30 30 27 26 25 24 19 12 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 57 50 49 51 57 62 65 48 49 55 41 20 -5 3 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -23 -2 -26 -30 -7 -23 10 38 52 29 8 -15 24 42 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 5 6 4 1 4 6 7 12 21 31 30 5 0 -3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 844 848 858 866 877 913 974 1064 1089 1022 931 851 793 744 739 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.6 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.2 24.0 24.6 25.2 26.2 27.5 29.0 31.0 33.2 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.7 121.2 121.7 122.1 123.1 124.1 125.3 126.6 127.5 128.0 128.7 129.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 9 11 11 10 9 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 3 4 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -37. -45. -53. -61. -69. -76. -82. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 15. 17. 17. 13. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 12. 11. 10. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -17. -19. -23. -29. -30. -30. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -8. -11. -20. -28. -36. -42. -47. -53. -60. -69. -78. -86. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.6 120.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 547.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.29 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.75 3.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.2% 17.2% 14.7% 12.8% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 5.8% 4.9% 4.3% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##