* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/05/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 76 73 68 58 49 42 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 76 73 68 58 49 42 36 30 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 74 69 64 55 47 40 34 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 6 6 4 4 6 10 14 19 30 35 33 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -4 -2 0 0 2 -4 1 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 274 2 36 59 39 343 329 252 229 215 215 198 183 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.0 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.2 24.5 23.6 22.0 21.5 21.4 20.7 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 133 132 132 128 122 113 106 97 81 76 75 69 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -48.8 -49.1 -49.3 -49.1 -48.7 -49.0 -49.0 -49.9 -50.7 -50.7 -50.8 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 56 51 50 46 41 42 42 46 49 53 41 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 34 32 29 28 26 25 24 21 16 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 58 50 47 52 52 58 60 48 41 45 51 21 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -26 -3 -18 -32 -16 -18 -5 -1 45 60 10 22 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 4 2 0 3 7 6 14 11 26 37 22 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 856 860 866 876 891 934 1022 1101 1025 951 882 848 832 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.3 22.7 23.1 23.5 24.3 24.8 25.7 27.0 28.4 30.1 32.0 34.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.6 121.1 121.5 122.0 122.5 123.5 124.7 125.9 126.8 127.6 128.4 129.5 131.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 4 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -5. -12. -21. -30. -39. -47. -56. -64. -72. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 13. 15. 18. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -16. -17. -20. -25. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -31. -38. -44. -50. -57. -66. -75. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 21.9 120.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.75 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 596.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.23 -1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 3.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.03 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 17.9% 15.6% 13.6% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 6.0% 5.2% 4.5% 3.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.2% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/05/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##