* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/06/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 73 68 63 52 44 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 73 68 63 52 44 35 27 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 77 72 67 61 51 42 35 28 21 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 5 5 10 13 21 31 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 3 1 0 3 0 2 4 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 28 357 343 325 304 319 253 223 220 214 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.4 25.0 24.3 23.3 21.9 21.5 21.4 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 130 125 120 115 111 104 94 80 76 76 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.1 -49.4 -49.2 -48.8 -48.7 -49.1 -49.2 -50.4 -50.7 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.3 -0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 49 45 42 43 42 46 47 47 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 32 30 29 27 26 25 23 21 17 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 43 45 51 52 53 58 44 39 33 21 -21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -33 -22 -16 -5 -23 -24 2 55 60 17 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 6 9 9 17 12 35 35 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 867 867 873 901 933 1033 1103 1057 970 888 834 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.9 23.4 23.8 24.2 24.5 25.0 25.8 26.9 28.5 30.5 32.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.7 122.1 122.5 123.1 123.6 124.9 126.1 127.2 128.0 128.8 129.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -17. -26. -37. -46. -54. -64. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 15. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 4. 6. 7. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. -29. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -12. -17. -28. -36. -45. -53. -62. -75. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 22.9 121.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/06/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 40.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.09 0.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.72 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 634.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.19 -1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -19.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.06 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 14.8% 13.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.5% 4.9% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.4% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/06/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##