* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/06/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 64 58 54 47 39 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 64 58 54 47 39 30 24 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 64 58 53 48 40 35 30 24 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 4 2 6 11 7 17 25 33 34 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 4 0 0 2 2 4 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 54 304 282 316 295 260 216 221 194 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.4 25.2 25.0 24.6 24.1 22.2 21.9 21.6 21.1 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 115 113 111 107 103 83 80 78 73 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.2 -48.6 -48.6 -49.0 -49.2 -50.2 -50.8 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.9 0.1 -0.1 -0.7 -0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 43 39 40 39 37 42 45 38 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 33 30 29 29 27 26 23 22 19 14 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 54 54 57 56 60 42 40 40 8 -18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -21 -14 6 -25 -36 2 49 80 45 19 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 1 7 8 9 11 9 16 42 14 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 887 904 926 960 998 1108 1116 1030 939 898 863 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.3 23.7 24.1 24.4 24.7 25.3 26.2 27.7 29.6 31.6 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.3 122.8 123.3 123.9 124.4 125.8 127.1 127.9 128.7 129.8 131.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 9 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 672 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -15. -24. -33. -41. -49. -57. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 17. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -10. -14. -19. -27. -33. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -16. -23. -31. -40. -46. -54. -65. -76. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 23.3 122.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/06/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.11 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 578.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.25 -1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.07 0.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 12.3% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.1% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.0% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/06/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##