* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/07/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 51 47 42 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 56 51 47 42 34 28 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 55 51 46 42 35 29 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 7 10 12 8 15 21 34 43 47 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 0 2 2 2 3 5 3 -1 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 285 286 305 324 314 270 225 220 205 201 191 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.1 24.8 24.4 24.2 22.6 21.8 21.6 21.1 21.0 20.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 112 109 105 103 87 80 78 73 72 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -48.7 -48.7 -49.1 -49.2 -49.2 -50.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.5 -0.5 -0.2 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 39 42 41 39 36 40 39 35 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 29 26 27 25 22 21 19 14 9 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 58 55 57 55 39 48 54 29 9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 -17 -28 -5 2 17 70 50 11 28 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 11 7 4 8 10 16 34 20 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 905 934 965 1018 1073 1123 1028 939 890 899 929 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.0 24.3 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.9 27.5 29.6 31.6 33.5 35.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.0 123.5 124.0 124.7 125.4 126.7 127.6 128.7 129.7 131.3 133.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 7 7 7 10 11 11 12 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -7. -15. -22. -30. -37. -45. -53. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -2. -2. -4. -5. -8. -14. -22. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -18. -26. -32. -37. -46. -56. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 24.0 123.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 48.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 1.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 494.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.2% 14.5% 12.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.4% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##