* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/07/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 41 36 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 41 36 28 23 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 50 46 41 37 31 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 6 9 10 5 9 17 26 33 39 39 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 3 1 6 4 0 -3 1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 319 328 303 272 241 219 207 202 205 209 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.3 24.1 22.2 21.8 21.5 20.8 20.6 21.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 110 107 104 103 83 80 77 70 68 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.0 -49.3 -49.5 -49.4 -49.6 -50.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.7 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.3 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 40 42 41 40 37 40 41 42 33 26 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 26 26 25 23 20 20 16 12 8 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 54 54 53 45 44 35 41 36 1 -26 -31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -11 -32 -18 0 25 26 59 39 12 25 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 9 5 3 6 12 8 30 16 18 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 930 974 1021 1068 1118 1082 994 910 894 914 988 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.2 24.4 24.6 25.0 25.3 26.5 28.2 30.4 32.4 34.3 36.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.0 124.6 125.2 125.9 127.0 128.0 129.0 130.4 132.2 134.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 9 10 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 593 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -14. -21. -28. -35. -43. -51. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 13. 16. 19. 23. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -16. -25. -30. -34. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -14. -19. -27. -32. -38. -47. -56. -62. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.2 123.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.53 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 453.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.96 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -43.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.37 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.0% 12.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 5.0% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.5% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##