* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MARIE EP132026 09/07/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 46 42 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 46 42 36 28 22 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 43 38 31 25 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 12 6 11 15 23 32 40 41 47 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 3 1 4 2 1 -2 0 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 316 321 303 275 264 236 220 196 200 201 215 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.3 24.1 24.1 23.7 22.7 21.8 21.6 21.3 21.2 20.9 21.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 104 102 102 98 88 79 78 75 74 71 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.5 -49.4 -49.6 -50.1 -51.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -53.0 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.2 -0.4 -0.3 0.2 0.2 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 40 39 37 37 40 39 35 28 27 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 24 22 21 19 18 14 9 6 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 52 45 42 30 36 37 25 -5 -28 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -25 -16 -7 20 24 44 64 20 20 20 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 6 5 6 11 10 15 29 10 1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 979 1024 1071 1115 1122 1048 959 934 949 988 1054 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.4 25.8 27.2 29.2 31.4 33.2 35.0 36.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.1 124.7 125.3 125.9 126.5 127.5 128.6 130.1 131.7 133.7 135.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 10 12 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -6. -9. -17. -24. -31. -38. -46. -54. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -16. -25. -29. -32. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -13. -19. -27. -32. -39. -49. -56. -61. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 24.5 124.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.41 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -38.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.31 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 13.1% 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.1% 4.4% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 2.2% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132026 MARIE 09/07/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##