* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/13/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 38 43 44 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 32 33 34 38 43 44 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 33 32 32 31 31 31 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 16 15 13 14 13 12 13 9 5 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 1 -2 -1 2 0 0 -3 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 297 278 282 292 299 295 308 297 319 276 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 29.0 28.6 28.5 29.1 27.6 28.7 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 154 150 149 155 140 151 144 149 151 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 70 69 68 67 65 59 56 50 49 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 15 13 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -20 -12 0 10 23 46 73 111 133 145 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 63 64 44 29 47 48 15 39 18 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -2 -2 0 2 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 935 1005 1076 1143 1212 1374 1530 1657 1834 2013 2175 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 10 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 25 23 14 17 5 16 8 14 21 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 19. 22. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 2. -0. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 14. 15. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.3 116.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/13/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.47 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 114.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.42 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.18 0.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 22.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.79 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 14.6% 12.3% 10.6% 0.0% 14.1% 13.3% 13.5% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.3% 4.2% 3.6% 0.0% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.6% 2.6% 1.8% 0.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/13/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##