* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/14/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 39 42 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 34 35 36 39 42 43 41 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 32 33 33 34 34 35 36 37 39 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 12 12 13 4 6 5 8 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -2 0 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 277 282 289 279 304 315 308 304 256 261 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.4 28.9 29.0 28.0 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 148 153 154 144 147 145 148 151 151 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.2 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 68 66 66 61 55 49 44 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 14 15 15 15 16 15 13 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -8 7 15 29 41 63 104 130 136 128 100 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 67 62 46 31 46 17 24 30 -10 18 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1045 1111 1177 1244 1314 1475 1635 1804 2028 2221 2172 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.0 16.8 16.7 16.5 16.4 16.3 16.2 15.9 15.9 16.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.7 119.5 120.3 121.1 123.1 125.1 127.3 129.9 132.3 134.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 15 15 17 8 7 10 11 22 24 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 752 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 20. 24. 26. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 2. -0. -4. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 12. 13. 11. 8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 117.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.68 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 19.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.3% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.2% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.5% 4.9% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 0.0% 5.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.2% 2.9% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##