* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/14/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 39 46 49 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 31 33 39 46 49 48 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 29 30 32 36 41 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 13 11 14 8 4 4 5 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 -3 -3 -5 -2 -4 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 283 282 283 288 310 333 356 249 245 236 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.2 29.2 28.0 27.9 29.3 28.4 28.9 29.1 29.0 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 156 156 144 143 158 149 155 156 155 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.4 -51.2 -50.8 -51.0 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.3 -51.9 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 66 65 60 54 50 52 53 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 9 24 33 47 75 124 136 149 127 120 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 56 43 28 27 26 21 29 10 20 60 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -1 -1 -1 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1130 1205 1282 1354 1428 1616 1823 2036 2254 2245 2005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.6 16.4 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.9 15.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 118.5 119.4 120.3 121.2 122.1 124.3 126.8 129.3 131.8 134.2 136.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 20 7 8 27 13 20 26 30 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 16. 19. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.6 118.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.50 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.30 1.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.62 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -35.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.27 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 13.8% 10.7% 8.7% 0.0% 13.9% 14.2% 15.3% Logistic: 0.6% 3.0% 0.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 5.6% 3.9% 3.0% 0.0% 4.7% 4.8% 5.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 3.8% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##