* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/14/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 34 39 46 49 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 34 39 46 49 49 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 33 37 42 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 12 10 12 13 6 5 4 4 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 1 2 -2 -2 -4 -4 -3 -4 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 286 289 281 291 303 334 3 51 210 206 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.0 28.1 28.4 28.8 28.7 29.0 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 146 149 153 152 156 160 157 156 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 67 65 62 56 51 48 50 50 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 14 14 15 13 12 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 11 25 35 52 60 106 143 141 132 118 108 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 15 26 42 31 30 19 11 21 57 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 2 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1207 1282 1361 1455 1552 1766 1982 2207 2309 2066 1853 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.3 16.2 16.1 16.0 15.9 15.5 15.1 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.3 121.3 122.5 123.6 126.0 128.5 131.0 133.7 136.1 138.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 12 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 17 18 7 9 19 16 16 25 26 28 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 683 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 13. 19. 25. 29. 31. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -1. -2. -4. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 4. 9. 16. 19. 19. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.3 119.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 115.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 26.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.57 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.3% 12.7% 10.0% 8.3% 0.0% 13.4% 13.7% 16.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.9% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 4.9% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% 4.5% 4.6% 5.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% SDCON: 0.9% 3.4% 2.2% 1.4% 0.0% 2.7% 2.8% 3.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/14/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##