* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/15/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 32 35 35 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 30 30 32 35 35 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 28 29 32 34 36 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 8 2 5 2 11 14 16 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 -1 -3 -2 -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 293 297 299 301 274 298 157 202 209 228 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.5 28.2 28.6 28.6 27.8 27.6 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 146 149 149 146 151 151 142 140 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -51.2 -51.3 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 62 60 57 55 54 47 48 50 54 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 14 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 49 55 71 84 95 109 110 79 69 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 19 14 -2 -3 9 8 -3 -4 18 25 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -3 -4 -4 -2 0 0 2 4 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1314 1389 1467 1544 1614 1752 1905 2088 2253 2042 1816 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.4 16.3 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 121.1 122.1 123.0 123.9 124.8 126.5 128.7 131.2 133.4 135.6 137.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 12 11 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 3 6 16 16 9 18 22 14 15 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -7. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 2. 5. 5. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.5 121.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.73 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 141.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.71 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -10.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.0% 15.6% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.0% 5.3% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 2.5% 3.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##