* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/15/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 39 39 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 31 34 37 39 39 39 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 30 32 36 41 45 48 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 10 5 7 7 2 11 16 12 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -3 -3 -4 -4 -6 -6 -4 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 311 328 321 290 318 61 183 191 201 189 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 29.1 28.5 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.2 28.8 28.5 28.6 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 155 149 149 151 155 157 153 150 151 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.1 -51.2 -51.1 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 58 55 54 54 52 56 58 61 61 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 12 11 11 10 9 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 76 90 114 126 132 142 121 111 97 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -6 3 -9 -1 -6 26 82 34 -10 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -4 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1514 1602 1683 1769 1859 1998 2171 2242 2006 1780 1552 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.1 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.7 16.0 16.3 16.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.4 124.4 125.3 126.4 127.4 129.3 131.5 134.0 136.2 138.3 140.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 10 10 10 10 12 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 23 13 12 16 22 32 25 23 22 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 740 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 123.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.76 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.74 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 158.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.50 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 13.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.78 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 4.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##