* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/15/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 22 21 21 25 30 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 25 23 22 21 21 25 30 33 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 25 24 23 22 22 23 25 27 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 1 6 5 3 7 15 17 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -1 -2 -4 -6 -6 -7 -5 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 333 314 245 277 268 172 200 210 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.7 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 151 151 151 153 158 157 153 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 57 57 55 53 54 59 64 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 11 10 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 68 84 109 117 124 138 131 116 107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 15 15 -8 6 11 65 78 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 0 -1 -1 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1624 1708 1787 1856 1927 2082 2250 2167 1896 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.5 15.5 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.8 16.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.4 125.4 126.3 127.2 128.1 130.1 132.3 134.7 137.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 10 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 15 13 16 16 28 29 27 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 644 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 29.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 20. 25. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. 0. 5. 8. 9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.8 124.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.87 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 135.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.24 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -8.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 18.2% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.5% 1.0% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 6.2% 6.4% 0.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.2% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/15/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##