* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 31 35 39 43 46 50 54 56 59 64 69 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 28 31 35 39 43 46 50 54 56 59 64 69 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 26 26 26 28 31 35 39 45 50 55 61 68 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 16 15 18 13 11 10 9 10 11 13 9 8 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -8 -5 -1 -2 -3 -6 -1 -2 1 0 0 -4 -7 -7 -4 -6 SHEAR DIR 184 189 186 182 183 165 173 138 158 144 148 154 184 174 162 130 59 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.0 28.7 28.4 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 158 158 154 151 147 145 148 150 154 159 156 155 151 148 150 149 149 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.1 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 68 67 70 72 73 71 71 68 65 65 68 71 75 74 75 75 79 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 11 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 115 106 99 98 95 97 94 103 123 133 134 118 117 108 111 121 125 200 MB DIV 76 110 113 105 80 38 18 23 37 25 26 23 59 43 58 72 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 0 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 0 -2 0 0 LAND (KM) 2246 2311 2313 2221 2141 1993 1847 1718 1575 1373 1120 852 626 470 449 545 675 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.4 15.7 16.0 16.5 16.5 16.3 15.6 14.9 14.4 14.5 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 131.6 132.6 133.4 134.2 134.9 136.2 137.6 138.9 140.5 142.8 145.7 148.7 151.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 10 13 15 14 13 11 10 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 25 27 27 24 22 19 23 25 29 31 25 24 23 27 29 28 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 33.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 16. 21. 26. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. 45. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 21. 25. 29. 31. 34. 39. 44. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.8 131.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.62 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 99.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.79 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 96.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.64 3.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.11 0.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -39.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.32 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.1% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 17.9% 16.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.3% Consensus: 0.2% 6.0% 5.1% 0.0% 0.0% 6.0% 5.8% 0.3% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##