* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/17/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 39 42 46 48 53 56 61 64 68 72 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 32 34 39 42 46 48 53 56 61 64 68 72 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 27 30 34 38 43 49 57 65 72 79 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 16 16 17 17 10 12 11 12 9 6 6 4 5 7 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -7 -4 -3 -4 -3 -7 -5 0 0 -3 -5 -6 -7 -6 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 201 200 200 198 189 191 185 159 143 133 148 187 243 201 207 190 205 SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.7 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 150 145 146 143 147 148 152 156 157 157 153 148 149 150 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.9 -51.7 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 65 67 69 70 68 66 64 62 62 66 70 73 73 74 70 69 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 104 95 93 87 87 97 93 97 112 124 109 110 99 106 107 108 101 200 MB DIV 102 113 100 81 61 13 0 4 13 5 -4 19 13 29 34 28 26 700-850 TADV 0 3 0 -2 -2 1 -3 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 4 LAND (KM) 2282 2281 2188 2087 1996 1823 1669 1526 1343 1126 893 682 513 414 441 572 712 LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.0 16.5 15.6 14.8 14.5 14.6 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 132.6 133.6 134.4 135.3 136.1 137.7 139.2 140.7 142.8 145.4 148.2 150.9 153.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 10 12 13 14 13 11 10 11 11 13 HEAT CONTENT 28 24 18 21 17 21 19 30 26 27 24 26 25 29 28 33 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 643 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 36. 38. 41. 43. 47. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -3. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 14. 17. 21. 23. 28. 31. 36. 39. 43. 47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.4 132.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/17/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.79 7.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 112.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.61 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 3.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.3 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 25.1% 18.8% 0.0% 0.0% 20.6% 21.4% 0.0% Logistic: 2.3% 9.4% 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.8% 4.9% 1.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 0.8% 11.9% 7.3% 0.7% 0.6% 7.5% 8.8% 0.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.4% 6.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.3% 3.7% 4.4% 0.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/17/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##