* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 38 42 45 44 48 53 57 61 65 70 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 29 30 31 33 38 42 45 44 48 53 57 61 65 70 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 24 24 24 26 28 30 33 37 42 47 56 67 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 17 19 14 11 11 8 12 12 12 5 5 4 6 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -1 -3 -1 -2 -7 -6 -5 -6 -8 SHEAR DIR 202 200 203 190 185 198 180 192 171 156 176 195 197 173 139 107 60 SST (C) 28.7 28.0 27.7 27.7 27.6 28.3 28.1 28.7 28.6 28.9 28.7 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 151 144 141 141 140 146 145 152 152 156 153 150 150 148 147 150 146 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 67 69 68 66 66 66 62 61 61 65 64 72 74 78 75 78 77 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 13 850 MB ENV VOR 87 77 67 70 73 70 71 83 95 104 101 111 103 105 95 97 90 200 MB DIV 107 98 72 48 32 -3 -3 13 -15 -14 -9 24 37 45 51 56 69 700-850 TADV 4 1 -2 -1 1 -1 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -2 0 -1 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 2281 2230 2128 2038 1938 1757 1583 1394 1157 915 707 577 528 558 638 718 747 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.8 17.6 16.8 16.0 15.1 14.7 14.4 14.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 133.1 133.9 134.8 135.6 136.5 138.2 139.9 141.9 144.5 147.5 150.4 153.0 155.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 8 9 12 14 15 13 12 9 7 5 4 0 HEAT CONTENT 26 17 18 15 13 14 14 25 24 28 26 25 23 26 23 30 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 15. 21. 25. 29. 32. 35. 37. 39. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -4. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 13. 17. 20. 19. 23. 28. 32. 36. 40. 45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.0 133.1 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.75 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 116.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.51 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -46.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.42 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 20.6% 15.7% 0.0% 0.0% 18.1% 17.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 4.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.4% 1.1% 5.7% 1.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.3% 8.4% 5.5% 0.2% 0.1% 6.4% 7.7% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.1% 5.2% 3.2% 0.1% 0.0% 3.2% 3.8% 0.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##