* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FIFTEEN EP152026 09/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 24 25 27 30 33 37 37 41 44 48 49 52 57 60 V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 24 25 27 30 33 37 37 41 44 48 49 52 57 60 V (KT) LGEM 25 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 36 41 45 51 57 64 72 82 91 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 10 12 13 12 17 17 19 18 15 11 9 7 7 5 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -2 -3 -5 -3 0 2 -2 0 -2 -4 -6 -5 -7 -4 SHEAR DIR 212 205 191 179 174 153 149 126 127 122 141 145 180 204 157 144 52 SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 28.9 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 151 151 150 151 153 159 160 159 160 155 151 150 149 147 146 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.8 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -51.8 -52.1 -51.8 -52.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 64 65 64 66 68 69 67 68 72 72 73 75 79 77 79 79 81 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 7 9 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 13 850 MB ENV VOR 106 97 96 100 102 104 118 138 160 144 131 123 125 125 126 110 114 200 MB DIV 76 58 38 21 -19 4 47 36 45 20 52 29 65 78 72 94 111 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -2 0 1 -2 -5 -1 -1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 1 LAND (KM) 2139 2032 1964 1896 1838 1736 1651 1522 1369 1175 968 797 654 557 537 563 619 LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.1 15.3 15.5 15.7 15.7 15.2 14.2 13.3 13.0 13.2 13.6 14.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 135.2 136.2 136.8 137.4 137.9 138.9 139.9 141.6 143.7 146.1 148.5 150.5 152.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 8 6 6 5 5 7 10 12 12 11 10 8 8 6 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 29 27 26 25 26 26 30 30 18 27 19 22 26 24 23 25 22 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 11. 17. 24. 29. 33. 37. 40. 42. 44. 46. 48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -10. -8. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 12. 12. 16. 19. 23. 24. 27. 32. 35. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 15.0 135.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.82 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.33 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.85 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 4.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.8% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP152026 FIFTEEN 09/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##