* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/30/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 62 65 65 70 73 74 73 73 73 73 71 75 77 78 81 V (KT) LAND 60 61 62 65 65 70 73 74 73 73 73 73 71 75 77 78 81 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 64 65 66 68 69 70 71 74 77 78 81 82 81 78 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 20 15 14 14 12 14 10 4 5 7 6 7 10 8 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 0 2 3 0 2 -1 0 -4 -5 -3 -2 0 0 1 6 SHEAR DIR 49 57 50 42 60 37 60 59 97 124 80 64 63 18 42 55 112 SST (C) 29.4 28.9 29.3 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.7 29.8 29.3 28.5 26.9 27.5 27.7 28.0 27.6 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 157 164 164 162 159 160 155 147 131 137 139 143 139 135 129 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.5 -49.8 -49.6 -49.6 -50.1 -49.5 -49.6 -49.3 -49.5 -48.6 -48.9 -48.4 -48.9 -48.6 -49.2 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 7 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 78 77 78 74 71 68 67 65 63 63 58 53 51 47 42 38 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 24 27 25 30 31 32 32 32 34 35 34 36 36 35 34 850 MB ENV VOR 49 62 75 74 86 105 104 109 116 113 118 123 119 118 130 125 138 200 MB DIV 51 73 90 99 83 36 42 24 3 7 16 -3 9 6 -29 -46 -47 700-850 TADV -10 -13 -15 -7 -3 0 0 -1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 334 315 317 332 346 380 393 366 371 401 454 540 597 680 793 900 967 LAT (DEG N) 16.6 17.2 17.7 18.2 18.6 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.8 20.0 20.3 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.3 106.9 107.4 107.9 108.4 109.1 109.8 110.7 111.3 112.3 113.4 114.5 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 7 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 5 5 7 7 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 24 19 14 20 28 27 17 17 9 11 2 5 6 7 6 6 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 399 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 25.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 2. 5. 8. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 12. 13. 12. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 5. 5. 10. 13. 14. 13. 13. 13. 13. 11. 15. 17. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 16.6 106.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.58 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 107.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.55 3.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.39 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -58.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.57 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.3% 20.5% 17.4% 15.2% 12.1% 18.6% 14.6% 11.9% Logistic: 0.5% 4.1% 0.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 8.3% 6.1% 5.2% 4.1% 6.4% 5.0% 4.0% DTOPS: 8.0% 29.0% 11.0% 7.0% 6.0% 52.0% 42.0% 1.0% SDCON: 5.8% 18.6% 8.5% 6.1% 5.0% 29.2% 23.5% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##