* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/30/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 75 81 83 88 91 87 83 78 71 68 69 65 65 65 62 61 V (KT) LAND 70 75 81 83 88 91 87 83 78 71 68 69 65 65 65 62 61 V (KT) LGEM 70 74 78 80 81 83 84 83 80 76 75 77 78 77 74 69 63 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 19 15 14 15 17 14 13 10 5 4 7 9 12 8 10 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 3 2 2 -1 0 2 0 -2 -2 -2 2 1 6 1 6 SHEAR DIR 42 40 46 57 61 44 55 73 76 52 77 59 59 51 73 82 130 SST (C) 28.9 29.5 30.2 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.0 27.8 27.0 27.6 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 159 166 165 163 160 161 153 140 131 137 140 142 138 135 127 123 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.4 -49.7 -49.6 -49.9 -50.0 -49.9 -49.6 -49.2 -49.1 -48.9 -48.8 -48.6 -49.0 -49.0 -49.5 -49.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 78 79 75 73 70 67 67 63 59 57 55 51 47 43 41 39 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 28 26 29 31 30 32 33 32 33 36 34 35 35 32 30 850 MB ENV VOR 59 77 73 85 95 99 114 115 125 118 113 112 124 116 110 106 103 200 MB DIV 86 91 87 86 54 47 23 4 -6 16 12 8 -20 -11 -17 -28 -24 700-850 TADV -15 -8 -5 -5 -2 1 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 -1 0 -1 3 LAND (KM) 306 312 324 346 374 372 350 363 416 486 552 615 694 793 900 986 1069 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 106.9 107.5 108.0 108.5 109.0 109.7 110.4 111.6 112.8 113.8 114.7 115.7 116.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 6 5 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 22 31 29 17 19 10 6 2 5 6 6 6 6 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 10 CX,CY: -6/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 425 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 4.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 46.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -1. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 3. 5. 5. 8. 11. 9. 10. 13. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 13. 11. 6. 0. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 13. 18. 21. 17. 13. 8. 1. -2. -1. -5. -5. -5. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 17.3 106.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.52 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 80.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.56 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 5.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 4.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.94 4.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -86.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.95 -0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 3.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 20.7% 42.1% 22.1% 17.4% 13.8% 20.7% 15.9% 11.4% Logistic: 11.7% 31.2% 7.7% 6.6% 1.7% 3.1% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.6% 10.0% 4.2% 1.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.7% 27.8% 11.3% 8.6% 5.5% 8.0% 5.5% 3.8% DTOPS: 48.0% 79.0% 72.0% 72.0% 60.0% 76.0% 14.0% 0.0% SDCON: 29.8% 53.4% 41.6% 40.3% 32.7% 42.0% 9.7% 1.9% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 06 UTC ##