* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 79 80 82 83 80 79 75 75 71 69 67 67 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LAND 75 79 80 82 83 80 79 75 75 71 69 67 67 66 67 66 65 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 82 82 81 79 79 76 73 70 69 69 70 69 66 60 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 18 15 10 14 17 13 7 5 3 5 10 7 10 9 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 2 6 1 0 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -3 1 2 6 7 5 SHEAR DIR 50 54 60 48 28 37 64 60 99 80 47 43 26 60 68 92 125 SST (C) 29.4 30.0 29.9 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.4 28.8 27.0 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.5 27.5 27.0 26.0 24.9 POT. INT. (KT) 158 164 163 159 158 158 156 150 132 134 136 139 137 137 132 123 112 200 MB T (C) -49.3 -49.6 -49.4 -49.6 -49.8 -49.4 -49.6 -49.0 -49.0 -48.3 -48.6 -47.9 -48.4 -48.4 -48.8 -48.6 -48.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 7 6 7 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4 700-500 MB RH 76 73 71 65 64 63 60 55 52 45 45 42 43 40 38 34 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 28 30 29 33 32 34 33 33 34 34 33 33 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 80 81 90 93 98 109 111 119 122 116 112 109 112 109 110 93 68 200 MB DIV 99 91 81 27 0 -4 0 -12 3 -2 -4 -25 -9 -23 -43 -32 -49 700-850 TADV -17 -10 -2 -1 1 0 0 0 2 1 0 0 1 2 2 3 3 LAND (KM) 337 358 384 406 394 371 362 373 446 520 564 610 678 762 846 924 1041 LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.3 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.7 108.4 109.0 109.4 109.7 110.3 111.0 111.8 113.2 114.2 114.9 115.9 117.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 4 3 3 3 5 6 4 4 6 6 6 6 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 14 23 29 21 16 12 11 10 2 5 5 6 5 6 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 9 CX,CY: -6/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 354 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 23.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20. -21. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 2. 1. 5. 5. 9. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 2. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 5. 7. 8. 5. 4. -0. 0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -9. -10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 17.8 107.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 4.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 196.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 23.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.21 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -76.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.82 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.5% 23.0% 18.7% 15.9% 12.4% 17.9% 13.5% 9.0% Logistic: 6.0% 18.7% 4.0% 3.2% 0.8% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.9% 3.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.1% 15.2% 7.9% 6.5% 4.4% 6.3% 4.5% 3.0% DTOPS: 32.0% 48.0% 31.0% 27.0% 17.0% 16.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 20.5% 31.6% 19.4% 16.7% 10.7% 11.1% 2.7% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##