* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 09/30/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 77 79 81 80 81 80 76 72 68 67 66 65 63 63 63 61 V (KT) LAND 75 77 79 81 80 81 80 76 72 68 67 66 65 63 63 63 61 V (KT) LGEM 75 77 78 78 78 77 76 74 72 69 68 68 66 63 60 55 48 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 17 15 17 17 13 11 10 5 8 7 9 13 13 14 13 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 0 0 2 3 -2 1 -1 0 0 0 4 3 8 1 SHEAR DIR 53 60 48 39 42 66 60 64 97 53 60 66 59 82 67 107 117 SST (C) 30.3 30.4 30.2 30.0 29.8 29.8 29.5 28.8 27.4 27.1 27.4 27.7 27.6 27.5 26.8 25.6 25.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 165 162 160 160 157 150 136 133 136 139 138 138 131 118 116 200 MB T (C) -49.5 -49.4 -49.8 -50.0 -49.7 -49.7 -49.3 -49.0 -48.8 -48.6 -48.5 -48.5 -48.8 -48.8 -49.1 -49.0 -49.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.8 1.1 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 73 68 67 66 62 58 57 53 47 47 45 42 41 37 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 27 29 29 30 33 31 31 31 33 34 34 32 32 31 28 850 MB ENV VOR 83 91 96 100 100 115 121 138 133 119 112 111 106 103 98 80 81 200 MB DIV 97 87 62 27 20 -15 -3 -19 3 0 -6 -14 -9 -23 -38 -32 -18 700-850 TADV -9 -4 -1 3 0 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 3 1 8 11 LAND (KM) 307 320 336 361 389 337 346 363 416 505 567 628 701 800 893 977 1078 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.9 19.9 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 107.8 108.2 108.6 109.0 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.8 112.9 114.1 115.2 116.3 117.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 3 4 5 5 6 5 5 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 22 26 29 29 21 13 12 10 4 3 4 6 5 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 413 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -18. -19. -19. -19. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 5. 5. 5. 5. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 5. 6. 5. 1. -3. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -12. -12. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 18.4 107.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 4.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.32 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 201.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.68 -4.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.80 3.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 28.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.26 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.2% 23.2% 18.6% 15.5% 12.5% 17.4% 12.7% 9.4% Logistic: 3.1% 8.6% 1.5% 1.1% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.7% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.0% 11.0% 6.8% 5.6% 4.3% 6.0% 4.3% 3.1% DTOPS: 13.0% 42.0% 23.0% 19.0% 17.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.5% 26.5% 14.9% 12.3% 10.6% 6.0% 2.6% 1.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 09/30/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##