* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * RACHEL EP182026 10/01/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 75 77 78 77 77 76 76 73 69 67 66 63 62 61 60 58 V (KT) LAND 75 75 77 78 77 77 76 76 73 69 67 66 63 62 61 60 58 V (KT) LGEM 75 76 75 75 75 73 71 69 68 67 66 65 63 60 56 51 46 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 17 20 19 19 14 11 10 8 9 10 12 13 10 14 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 -4 -5 -1 -1 -2 0 1 1 5 2 SHEAR DIR 72 59 51 57 50 51 59 69 76 72 53 51 60 64 90 108 133 SST (C) 30.4 30.2 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.3 28.0 26.5 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.0 25.9 25.4 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 167 165 162 162 162 161 156 142 127 134 138 138 137 132 121 116 114 200 MB T (C) -49.4 -49.8 -49.9 -49.7 -49.2 -49.5 -49.1 -49.1 -48.6 -48.9 -48.5 -49.0 -48.9 -49.2 -48.9 -49.2 -49.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 5 7 7 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 72 65 65 63 60 58 55 52 47 47 47 45 40 40 39 37 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 28 29 28 30 30 31 32 32 33 34 33 33 32 30 27 850 MB ENV VOR 84 93 98 104 107 114 136 133 125 117 113 114 119 112 108 91 93 200 MB DIV 82 71 60 62 25 -18 -13 0 -19 -18 -14 -13 -23 -33 -29 -27 -12 700-850 TADV -4 -1 2 1 1 0 0 1 1 -1 0 -1 0 0 1 3 7 LAND (KM) 313 332 356 356 329 306 324 379 458 532 601 685 792 874 939 1040 1160 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.0 20.2 20.3 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.8 20.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.3 108.7 109.0 109.3 109.6 110.4 111.4 112.5 113.7 114.8 115.9 117.2 118.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 4 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 28 29 25 19 16 10 10 8 0 3 5 5 6 3 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 407 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 24.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. -21. -21. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 2. 4. 4. 7. 9. 9. 10. 11. 8. 7. 6. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. -2. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. -15. -17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 19.0 108.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP182026 RACHEL 10/01/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 4.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.27 1.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.46 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -70.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.73 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.8% 22.1% 17.6% 14.9% 12.0% 17.3% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 2.7% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 8.3% 6.0% 5.1% 4.1% 5.8% 4.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 9.0% 12.0% 5.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 6.8% 10.1% 5.5% 4.0% 3.0% 3.4% 2.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182026 RACHEL 10/01/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##