* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * NINETEEN EP192026 09/30/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 34 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 34 34 34 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 31 31 28 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 20 23 22 18 18 25 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 5 7 10 9 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 90 80 88 93 77 85 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 146 147 147 149 145 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -50.9 -51.2 -50.8 -50.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 56 58 58 58 56 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 37 28 24 8 -3 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 20 36 55 32 16 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 0 0 0 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2076 1986 1898 1823 1739 1606 1488 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.4 14.6 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 128.8 127.8 126.8 125.9 125.0 123.4 121.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 8 14 14 16 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 9 CX,CY: 9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 128.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP192026 NINETEEN 09/30/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.74 4.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 34.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.03 0.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 160.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 -3.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.7% 15.0% 9.9% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 8.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.2% 2.3% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 8.0% 3.9% 3.4% 0.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 5.5% 2.4% 1.7% 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP192026 NINETEEN 09/30/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##